— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
90¢
wn2
89¢
aifs
75¢
icon
60¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
44¢
hres
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F8¢
60–61°F18¢
62–63°F25¢
64–65°F24¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape