daily prop · Baltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Fri Oct 23

Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

54¢

american -116 · decimal 1.86

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 64°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		88¢
eps		72¢
ndfd		54¢
aifs		54¢
nbm		33¢
icon		29¢
hres		21¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

56–57°F2¢

58–59°F8¢

60–61°F18¢

62–63°F25¢

64–65°F24¢

66–67°F15¢

68–69°F6¢

70–71°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape