— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
84¢
aifs
83¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
53¢
hres
34¢
eps
33¢
nbm
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F4¢
58–59°F11¢
60–61°F18¢
62–63°F23¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBWI-20261024-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape