— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
90¢
wn2
82¢
eps
74¢
nbm
53¢
hres
51¢
icon
42¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBWI-20261027-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape