— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
96¢
aifs
93¢
nbm
68¢
hres
65¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
53¢
eps
52¢
rrfs
40¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F29¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape