— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
80¢
aifs
80¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
55¢
hres
51¢
icon
35¢
eps
35¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F30¢
74–75°F26¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,463 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.9 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape