— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
77¢
aifs
67¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
39¢
icon
38¢
nbm
33¢
eps
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F28¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F13¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape