— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
89¢
aifs
79¢
hres
71¢
nbm
55¢
eps
52¢
icon
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F24¢
66–67°F25¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape