— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
19¢
hres
13¢
ndfd
10¢
aifs
9¢
icon
7¢
eps
0¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape