daily prop · Cleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Wed Oct 21

Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +4286 · decimal 43.86

on the tape

75°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 75°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		18¢
wn2		12¢
ndfd		11¢
hres		8¢
icon		5¢
nbm		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

58–59°F2¢

60–61°F8¢

62–63°F21¢

64–65°F31¢

66–67°F25¢

68–69°F11¢

70–71°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:35+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape