— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
54¢
wn2
49¢
aifs
45¢
hres
33¢
icon
30¢
eps
27¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F22¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape