— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
78¢
eps
71¢
wn2
69¢
hres
67¢
nbm
54¢
aifs
30¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F12¢
74–75°F7¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape