— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
65¢
ndfd
59¢
wn2
47¢
hrrr
46¢
eps
41¢
nbm
41¢
rrfs
40¢
icon
18¢
hres
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-12T07:47:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape