— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
81¢
wn2
75¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
47¢
hres
36¢
icon
31¢
rrfs
29¢
hrrr
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F32¢
74–75°F27¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape