— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
aifs
92¢
icon
88¢
eps
82¢
nbm
77¢
hres
60¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F26¢
74–75°F30¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F7¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape