— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
29¢
icon
28¢
aifs
22¢
eps
19¢
wn2
18¢
hres
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape