— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
88¢
aifs
81¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
49¢
eps
49¢
rrfs
40¢
hres
30¢
nbm
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F28¢
70–71°F29¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape