— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
82¢
aifs
78¢
ndfd
55¢
eps
42¢
nbm
41¢
hres
38¢
icon
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F27¢
70–71°F29¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape