— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
wn2
47¢
aifs
46¢
icon
24¢
nbm
23¢
hres
14¢
eps
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F8¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F23¢
70–71°F15¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape