— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
aifs
92¢
icon
75¢
nbm
71¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
50¢
eps
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F6¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F12¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape