— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
aifs
82¢
icon
81¢
nbm
77¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
49¢
eps
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F22¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F13¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,365 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.476 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape