daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sun Oct 18

Washington high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 62

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 59°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 4¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		97¢
aifs		93¢
nbm		75¢
eps		73¢
hres		70¢
rrfs		65¢
ndfd		59¢
icon		51¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-12T15:26:36+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:38:30+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape