daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Wed Oct 21

Washington high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

81¢

american -435 · decimal 1.23

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 64°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		96¢
aifs		92¢
eps		82¢
icon		79¢
nbm		59¢
hres		57¢
ndfd		55¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

62–63°F1¢

64–65°F14¢

66–67°F41¢

68–69°F34¢

70–71°F8¢

72–73°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape