daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Wed Oct 21

Washington runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

3¢

american +3617 · decimal 37.17

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		18¢
wn2		16¢
aifs		13¢
ndfd		5¢
hres		4¢
nbm		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

62–63°F1¢

64–65°F14¢

66–67°F41¢

68–69°F34¢

70–71°F8¢

72–73°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape