daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Thu Oct 22

Washington runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 22

2¢

american +6436 · decimal 65.36

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		22¢
wn2		18¢
icon		11¢
hres		3¢
nbm		1¢
ndfd		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

62–63°F2¢

64–65°F9¢

66–67°F22¢

68–69°F30¢

70–71°F23¢

72–73°F10¢

74–75°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape