daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Fri Oct 23

Washington runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

2¢

american +6394 · decimal 64.94

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		17¢
ndfd		7¢
wn2		7¢
aifs		6¢
hres		2¢
nbm		2¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

56–57°F2¢

58–59°F6¢

60–61°F15¢

62–63°F23¢

64–65°F25¢

66–67°F18¢

68–69°F8¢

70–71°F3¢

72–73°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape