— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
70¢
wn2
58¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
48¢
nbm
37¢
eps
30¢
hres
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F8¢
60–61°F16¢
62–63°F22¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F16¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDCA-20261024-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape