— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
93¢
wn2
78¢
hres
59¢
eps
56¢
nbm
54¢
icon
50¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,437 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.597 vs climatology 8.737.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDCA-20261027-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape