— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
41¢
hres
21¢
icon
17¢
eps
15¢
aifs
10¢
wn2
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F0¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F27¢
72–73°F30¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape