— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
37¢
icon
32¢
hres
24¢
eps
8¢
aifs
7¢
wn2
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F29¢
76–77°F26¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F4¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape