— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
61¢
ndfd
55¢
eps
48¢
nbm
37¢
icon
27¢
wn2
26¢
aifs
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F15¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape