— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
58¢
icon
56¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
44¢
hres
26¢
wn2
7¢
aifs
3¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
48–49°F1¢
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F5¢
54–55°F8¢
56–57°F11¢
58–59°F14¢
60–61°F15¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDEN-20261025-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape