— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
76¢
hres
71¢
nbm
68¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
51¢
icon
31¢
wn2
30¢
rrfs
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-15T16:20:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape