— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
53¢
hres
52¢
aifs
29¢
icon
17¢
wn2
16¢
rrfs
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F31¢
84–85°F24¢
86–87°F10¢
88–89°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-15T16:20:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape