— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
59¢
ndfd
55¢
eps
51¢
hres
51¢
icon
33¢
aifs
26¢
wn2
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F29¢
86–87°F24¢
88–89°F12¢
90–91°F3¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261022-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape