— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
44¢
eps
43¢
icon
40¢
hres
36¢
aifs
26¢
wn2
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F21¢
86–87°F21¢
88–89°F15¢
90–91°F8¢
92–93°F3¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape