— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
49¢
hres
32¢
icon
32¢
aifs
24¢
wn2
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F11¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261025-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape