— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
28¢
nbm
22¢
icon
15¢
hres
14¢
eps
9¢
aifs
8¢
wn2
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F11¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261025-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape