daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Mon Sep 21

Des Moines high ≥ 59°F · Mon Sep 21

YES

settled · observed 62

golden 15d out on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 59°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop went golden 15.2 days before settlement.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		100¢
eps		100¢
aifs		97¢
rrfs		95¢
hres		92¢
icon		80¢
nbm		64¢
ndfd		56¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20260921-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00 · settled 2026-09-22T14:01:05+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape