daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sun Oct 18

Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

settled · observed 67

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 68°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		55¢
aifs		50¢
icon		37¢
wn2		34¢
eps		31¢
hres		24¢
nbm		23¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-13T15:41:31+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:38:51+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape