— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
37¢
hres
31¢
wn2
30¢
nbm
24¢
icon
16¢
eps
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F25¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-13T04:15:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape