daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Mon Oct 19

Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +5852 · decimal 59.52

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		12¢
ndfd		10¢
hres		8¢
aifs		6¢
wn2		3¢
nbm		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F2¢

62–63°F7¢

64–65°F18¢

66–67°F27¢

68–69°F25¢

70–71°F14¢

72–73°F5¢

74–75°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape