daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Tue Oct 20

Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

2¢

american +4286 · decimal 43.86

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		17¢
ndfd		16¢
hres		10¢
wn2		7¢
icon		4¢
nbm		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

66–67°F2¢

68–69°F17¢

70–71°F46¢

72–73°F30¢

74–75°F5¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-13T08:03:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape