— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
88¢
aifs
85¢
icon
62¢
ndfd
55¢
hres
51¢
nbm
37¢
eps
33¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F23¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape