— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
73¢
aifs
66¢
icon
63¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
31¢
nbm
29¢
eps
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F12¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape