— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
67¢
icon
57¢
eps
54¢
nbm
52¢
wn2
48¢
hres
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F1¢
48–49°F2¢
50–51°F3¢
52–53°F5¢
54–55°F8¢
56–57°F11¢
58–59°F13¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261027-TMAX-GE61 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape