— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
82¢
aifs
72¢
hres
61¢
nbm
55¢
icon
53¢
eps
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape