— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
86¢
aifs
83¢
rrfs
64¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
51¢
hres
47¢
icon
31¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F24¢
66–67°F31¢
68–69°F22¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape