— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
95¢
aifs
90¢
icon
79¢
eps
66¢
hres
58¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F25¢
68–69°F27¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape