— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
74¢
aifs
70¢
nbm
54¢
hres
52¢
icon
42¢
eps
42¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F22¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape